In it, Taleb unpacks some of the rationale underpinning the belief that “the world is far more random than we think”. The book, Fooled by Randomness, is rather foundational in understanding the need for such thinking. Explicitly, the use of Monte Carlo simulations, thinking in terms of bets and factoring for uncertainty and/or tail risks are something I have borrowed directly from his work. His work popularising probabilistic thinking and bringing awareness to the fragility of many existing systems is, combined with Pabrai’s work, the inspiration for much of my investing approach. There have been few authors with as much an impact on my thinking as Taleb. “But it remains the case that you know what is wrong with a lot more confidence than you know what is right.” “This is the central illusion in life: that randomness is a risk, that it is a bad thing.” My favourite quote by Taleb would have to be a tie between one of the two below:
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